Hurricane Barry Update!
As of this morning’s hurricane hunter recon flight into the system, in additional to several ground-based measurements near the center of Barry, it was determined that Barry was exhibiting sustained winds in excess of hurricane force (74 MPH – 80 MPH). As a result, the National Hurricane Center has upgraded Barry to a Hurricane as of the 10am Central Update. That said, this has to be one of the strangest hurricanes, it terms of how it look on satellite & radar along with the wobbly track, I’ve ever seen. I’ll discuss more of the latter after the following, very important, key messages from the National Hurricane Center.
Hurricane Barry is still threatening all of Louisiana with Landfall coming very soon. National Hurricane Center track guidance has not changed much over the last several updates outside of very small adjustments westward. Though most model runs have generally been adjusting to a slow westward wobble (for lack of a better term) that the storm has been doing for the last day and a half.
Without getting too complicated in the discussion, Barry has had several surface swirls that seem to be moving about a main low level and mid-level center of circulation. These swirls have been visible on satellite and tend to eject out from the main area of convection, then rotate back underneath the main area of convection. This results in a track that looks a lot like a stair-step path towards where it is now. An example of the exposed swirls is below (click to play).
As you can see by the models below, this general northwest, stair-step track, should continue today.
The following images come from the National Weather service office in New Orleans/Baton Rouge and depict the various threats posed by Hurricane Barry over the next 24-48 hours.
As you can see above, this event will only just get going for Louisiana residents today, and it will be a very long 24-48 hours for them as they contend with potentially catastrophic flooding from heavy rainfall, storm surge, hurricane force winds and gusts, tropical storm force winds inland, power outages, and tornadoes. Be thinking of them.
For Southeast Texas, the threats remain minimal. Hot and breezy day for most of today (Saturday) with increasing chances for rainfall as bands wrap around and flow into Barry.
Tonight, it is possible that banding will set up near the coast which could lead to training storms, potentially heavy rainfall and gusty winds at times. Minor flooding is not out of the question, but given we’ve not had much rainfall recently, the flood threats will be mitigated by the ground absorption. Model below (hopefully it moves) shows the potential for rain to setup along the coast tonight.
Outside of that, pray for Louisiana. We’ll continue to monitor Barry’s wobbly progress as it makes landfall and moves northwestward today wreaking havoc on the people in its path.
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